Fuzzy Decision Support Applied to Machine Maintenance
This research work focuses on the optimal algorithms of decision making and forecasting respectively, in order to achieve a better prediction. Decision making techniques and forecasting methods are investigated due to the poor accuracy of forecasting in comparison with real world data. The uncertainty of real world data leads to the use of type-1 fuzzy sets, type-2 fuzzy sets, fuzzy decision tree and fuzzy time-series for fuzzy data-mining - to which they are applied for the look-ahead based interval-valued fuzzy decision tree with optimal perimeter of the neighbourhood (LAIVFDT-OPN) model, and high-order type-2 fuzzy time series (HO-T2FTS) model. In the experiment with a real world business, a ‘computerised maintenance integration management system’ (CMIMS) is constructed as a simulation model for a case study. The CMIMS model consists of the LAIVFDT-OPN and HO-T2FTS models. It is also applied to a set of real world data from a factory in Thailand. Due to the significant uncertainty involved in machine maintenance, most tasks in machine diagnosis are still carried out manually by technicians. In this research, a prototype of CMIMS employing fuzzy data mining to diagnose machine maintenance is constructed. Considering the special features of machine maintenance data, fuzzy decision trees and fuzzy time series are adopted in the proposal method. To represent the uncertain fuzzy memberships, interval-valued fuzzy decision trees are proposed and an optimal neighbourhood perimeter is defined for look-ahead fuzzy decision trees. Based on the existing first-order type-2 time-series and high-order type-1 fuzzy time series, an improved high-order type-2 fuzzy time series method is put forward. In this case study, the CMIMS model can be used to analyse and evaluate uncertain data. It also can be employed to facilitate decision making in machine equipment status, and forecast machine maintenance plan in the future in stead of technicians. Our results demonstrated that the proposal method is effective in fuzzy decision support for machine maintenance.
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