What role can growth curves play in forecasting with particular reference technology strategy?

Abstract

Previously, papers have been presented to the IWCS which have looked at the use of a limited set of equations to help predict the path of technology. The results were promising and indicated that a set of biologically inspired equations providing analogies for technology push, consumer pull and ‘me too’ type self fuelling growth had potential in predicting (a) the maximum speed etc. of a technology or maximum size of a market (b) the point at which a replacement technology should be invested in (c) understanding the market dynamics driving a technology. Currently an interview-based survey is underway to further investigate this hypothesis. This paper will present the preliminary results of this survey.